Home / Technical Analysis / Weekly Forex Forecast: August 17, 2020

Weekly Forex Forecast: August 17, 2020

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Major Stock Indices Overview

S&P500 US Index

The S&P500 index tested the supply zone around 3353.16-3398.03 levels last week with a gain of +0.64%.

The index is still trading above the 50 and the 100 moving averages. The price might retrace back down to 3315.22 level (38.2% fib.) and 3260.07 level (61.8% fib.).

The 200 MA acts as a strong support level. If the index manages to break the 200MA, the index might drop below the 2980.76 level.

Last week, the major indices closed higher except the NASDAQ with -0.21% lower.

The overall sentiment in the US markets is bearish as the number of COVID-19 cases rose with the possibility of a government shut down. Also, the US-China trade deal was delayed with no specific date scheduled. This could eliminate the weekend risk of unexpected volatility in the markets.

S&P 500 Forex Forecast
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FTSE100 Index

The European equity markets are closing higher with the UK’s FTSE 100 gaining +0.8%, the German DAX +1.8% and the France’s CAC +1.5%.

The index moved higher to test the resistance level at 6249.2 and showed price rejection to close below the 50 moving average. With the 100 moving average acting as a support level, we could see a retracement back up to re-test the 6249.2 level again.

The 200 moving average is still trading above the price. I expect more bearish momentum for this week. If price breaks below the 100 moving average, the next targets are the 5832.7 and the 5572.3 levels.

FTSE 100 Forex Forecast

Nikkei 225 Index

The Nikkei 225 index closed at 23289.36 with a gain of +4.30% last week. The index tested the supply zone around 23302-23824 levels and price was rejected. This suggests more bearish momentum is expected for this week.

The index is trading above the 50 moving average with a strong support level around 21670.

If the price continues to move down and breas below the 23160 level, the next potential targets are the 22708 and the 22323 levels.

If the support level at 23160 holds and price moves higher, the next targets are the 23724 and the 24328 levels.

Nikkei 225 Forex Forecast

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Forex Market Forecast

At the open of the US session last week, the strongest currencies were the JPY +2.44% and GBP +1.34%, against the weakest currencies the USD -1.08% and CAD -3.11%.

US Dollar Index

The US index is still trading below the 20 moving average and found weekly support around 92.080-93.130 levels.

On the daily chart, the index is moving sideways with a support level of around 92.740. If the price breaks below the previous low at 92.525, the next target is the 91.600 level.

If price retraces back up and starts showing bullish evidence to the upside, we go long with targets at 94.518 and 95.764 levels.

The overall sentiment is bearish on the US dollar index.

Weekly Forex speculative data from the COT report suggests less net long positions hold by traders. With 57.4% longs vs. 56.9% shorts and a net long change of -1487 and a net short change of -177.

EURUSD

On the daily chart, price moved down and tested the demand zone around 1.16950-1.17810 levels and showed enough bullish evidence to the upside. The EURUSD is still trading above the 20 moving average.

The next potential targets on this market are the 1.21767 and the 1.24599 levels.

The weekly COT report shows more bulls than bears with a 13.7% net long positions and a 9.4% net short positions.

EURUSD Forex Forecast

GBPUSD

On the daily chart, price tested the supply zone around 1.30710-1.32050 levels and moved sideways. The GBPUSD is still trading above the 20 moving average. If price breaks below the previous low, the next target is to test the demand zone around 1.28360-1.29240 levels.

If price breaks above the previous high, the next targets are the 1.32600 and the 1.34345 levels.

The weekly Forex COT report shows more bears than bulls, with 21.8% net long positions vs. 23.7% net short positions.

GBPUSD Forex Forecast

AUDUSD

On the daily chart, price tested the supply zone around 0.72110-0.72950 levels and moved sideways. If price breaks the previous high and shows enough bullish evidence to the upside, the next targets are the 0.73745 and the 0.75432 levels.

If price breaks below the 0.70622 level, the next target is to test the demand zone around 0.69230-0.69720 levels.

The weekly Forex COT report shows mmore bulls than bears with 31.5% net long positions vs. 20.1% net short positions.

AUDUSD Forex Forecast

NZDUSD

On the daily chart, price tested the supply zone around 0.66980-0.67550 levels and showed strong bearish evidence to the downside.

If price breaks below the 0.65052 level, the next target is the demand zone around 0.63820-0.64490 levels.

The overall sentiment is bearish.

The weekly Forex COT report shows more bears than bulls with 27.7% net long positions vs. 48.7% net short positions.

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NZDUSD Forex Forecast

USDCAD

On the daily chart, price created a new demand zone around 1.31890-1.32420 levels and showed enough bullish evidence to the upside.

The next target on this market is to test the demand zone around 1.33900-1.34500 levels. If price breaks above this demand zone, the next target is the 1.35151 level.

the weekly Forex COT report shows more bulls than bears with 31.7% net long positions vs. 9.6% net short positions.

USDCAD Forex Forecast

USDCHF

On the daily chart, price tested the demand zone around 0.89350-0.90790 levels and kept moving sideways. If price breaks below the previous low, the next potential target is the 0.89458 and the 0.87827 levels.

If the 0.90790 level holds and price starts showing bullish evidence, the next target is the 0.92148 level.

The weekly Forex COT report shows more bears than bulls with 9.6% net long positions vs. 39.2% net short positions.

USDCHF Forex Forecast

USDJPY

On the daily chart, price tested the supply zone around 106.800-107.280 levels and showed enough bearish evidence to the downside. The next target on this market is the 105.986 and the 105.330 levels.

The weekly Forex COT report shows more bears than bulls with 16% net long positions vs. 19.3% net short positions.

USDJPY Forex Forecast

Commodities

Gold

On the daily chart, Gold created a new all time high supply zone around 2015.50-2048.04 levels and showed strong bearish evidence to the downside. Also, price tested the demand zone around 1861.47-1885.53 levels and showed strong bullish evidence that pushed price higher.

If price breaks below previous low, the next targets are the 1918.80 and the 1823.72 levels. Otherwise, price will continue moving higher and test the 2015.50 level.

XAUUSD Forex Forecast

Crude Oil

On the daily chart, Crude oil is still moving sideways with a bullish consolidation. If price breaks above the 42.81 level, the next target is the 44.67 level as this is a strong supply area.

If price breaks below the previous low and shows some bearish evidence, the next target is the 39.88 and the 37.86 levels.

Crude Oil Forex Forecast

Risk Disclaimer: By viewing any material or using this weekly forex forecast within this site, you agree that it is general educational material and you will not hold anybody or entity responsible for loss or damages resulting from the content provided here by “TradingFXHub”. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results found in this weekly forex forecast are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Individual results vary and no representation is made that clients will or are likely to achieve profits or incur losses comparable to those that may be shown.

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